China’s 10-Year Future Industries Strategic Blueprint
On October 24-26, 2025, Zheng Shanjie, Director of China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), announced at a press conference on the guiding principles from the fourth plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee that China will vigorously develop seven future industries over the next decade, including quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen and nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and 6G mobile communications. The goal is creating economic growth equivalent to an entirely new high-tech industrial sector. This strategy marks China’s critical positioning to transform from “world’s factory” to “technological innovation leader,” aiming to capture commanding heights in the next technological revolution, reduce dependence on Western technology, and achieve technological self-reliance. Zheng Shanjie stated: “These industries will become new engines for future economic growth, with industrial scale added over the next decade equivalent to creating an entirely new high-tech sector.”
Seven Major Future Industry Strategic Priorities
Quantum Technology
Quantum Communication Industrialization: China leads globally in quantum communication, launching the world’s first quantum communication satellite “Micius” in 2016, achieving thousands of kilometers of quantum key distribution. QuantumCTek, headquartered in Hefei, is the world’s largest quantum communication equipment manufacturer, having established a 2,000-kilometer quantum communication backbone between Beijing and Shanghai, serving finance, government, and military sectors.
Industrialization Progress: QuantumCTek’s 2025 revenue is projected to reach 2 billion RMB, growing approximately 30%, with major customers including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Mobile, and State Grid. Products cover quantum key distribution equipment (QKD), quantum random number generators (QRNG), and quantum secure routers.
Quantum Computing R&D: The University of Science and Technology of China’s Pan Jianwei team developed “Zuchongzhi” superconducting quantum computer reaching 66 qubits, and “Jiuzhang III” photonic quantum computer reaching 255 photon modes, claiming quantum advantage in specific problems (Boson Sampling). Though lacking the versatility of Google Willow, this demonstrates China’s rapid quantum computing technological progress.
Government Investment: China has announced a $138 billion government-backed venture fund, prioritizing quantum startups. Hefei, Jinan, and Shanghai have established quantum technology innovation centers, concentrating R&D resources and talent.
Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCI)
NeuroXess Breakthrough: Shanghai-based NeuroXess is China’s leading invasive BCI company, successfully implanting electrodes in 10 epilepsy patients’ brains, enabling patients to communicate complex Chinese sentences using thought alone. This represents China’s first large-scale clinical trial, with technical standards approaching U.S. Neuralink.
Technical Features:
- High-Density Electrode Arrays: Each implant contains hundreds to thousands of microelectrodes, recording neuronal activity signals
- Chinese Language Decoding: Optimized decoding algorithms for Chinese language characteristics (tones, character forms), achieving 85%+ accuracy
- Application Scenarios: Communication assistance for ALS and high-level paralysis patients, future expansion to motor control (manipulating robotic arms, wheelchairs)
Regulatory Progress: China’s National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) has approved NeuroXess clinical trials, with medical device licensing application expected by 2027. Compared to U.S. Neuralink’s delayed regulatory review, China’s BCI industrialization speed may be faster.
Market Prospects: China has approximately 8 million paralyzed or speech-impaired patients, with BCI potential market scale reaching tens of billions RMB. Beyond medical applications, future expansion may include education (accelerated learning), entertainment (virtual reality control), and military (soldier enhancement).
Embodied Intelligence
Concept Definition: Embodied intelligence refers to AI systems integrated into physical robots, learning physical laws and common-sense reasoning through perception-action loops interacting with the real world. Unlike pure software AI (such as ChatGPT), embodied intelligence requires deep integration of robot hardware, computer vision, motion control, and tactile sensing.
China’s Advantages:
- Manufacturing Foundation: China is the world’s largest industrial robot market, with 2024 installation volume accounting for 52% globally, providing application scenarios for embodied intelligence
- AI Technology Accumulation: Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent’s mature technologies in visual recognition and natural language processing can rapidly integrate into robots
- Complete Supply Chain: Increasing localization rates for servo motors, reducers, controllers, and sensors reduce costs
Key Enterprises:
- UBTECH: Humanoid robot Walker X, 1.7 meters tall, capable of carrying heavy objects, opening doors, pouring water, applied in factories and restaurants
- Xiaomi CyberOne: Humanoid robot prototype integrating Xiaomi AI voice assistant Xiao Ai, demonstrating consumer-grade humanoid robot potential
- CloudMinds: Cloud intelligent robots connecting to cloud AI brains via 5G, reducing local computing requirements
Application Scenarios: Manufacturing (assembly, welding, handling), logistics (warehouse sorting, delivery), service industries (restaurant food delivery, hotel cleaning), and households (elderly companionship, household assistance). China’s severe aging (65+ population 20%) creates massive service robot demand.
6G Mobile Communications
Technical Indicators: 6G targets peak speeds of 1Tbps (100x 5G), latency below 0.1 milliseconds (1/10 of 5G), supporting 10 million device connections per square kilometer. Integrating satellite communications, terahertz bands (100GHz-10THz), and space-air-ground integrated networks.
China’s Positioning:
- IMT-2030 Promotion Group: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology leads 6G promotion group, uniting Huawei, ZTE, China Mobile, Tsinghua University, and other industry-academia-research institutions
- Patent Leadership: China accounts for 40% of global 6G-related patent applications, leading U.S., Europe, and Japan
- Test Network Construction: Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen establish 6G test networks, testing terahertz communications, reconfigurable intelligent surfaces (RIS), and AI-native networks
Strategic Significance: During 5G era, China’s Huawei and ZTE faced U.S. blockade and suppression. In 6G standard-setting, China strives for greater voice, avoiding repetition. Controlling 6G standards will bring massive patent licensing revenue and supply chain dominance.
Biomanufacturing
Synthetic Biology: Using gene editing (CRISPR) and metabolic engineering to modify microorganisms, producing drugs, chemicals, materials, and food. For example, producing insulin through E. coli, spider silk protein through yeast (manufacturing high-strength fibers).
Chinese Enterprises:
- BGI (Beijing Genomics Institute): World’s largest gene sequencing company, providing gene testing and bioinformatics analysis services
- Cathay Biotech: Producing bio-based nylon (polyamide) and long-chain dicarboxylic acids, replacing petroleum chemical products, reducing carbon emissions
- Novozymes China: Industrial enzyme manufacturer, applications in detergents, textiles, and biofuels
Application Potential: China’s chemical industry ranks first globally. Biomanufacturing can replace high-energy, high-pollution petrochemical processes, aligning with carbon neutrality goals. By 2030, biomanufacturing output value is projected to reach $300 billion.
Hydrogen Energy and Nuclear Fusion
Hydrogen Energy Positioning: China is the world’s largest hydrogen producer (33 million tons annually, 30% globally), but most is “gray hydrogen” (natural gas reforming, with carbon emissions). Future focus is developing “green hydrogen” (renewable energy water electrolysis), applied to fuel cell vehicles, steel smelting, and chemicals.
Nuclear Fusion R&D: China’s “artificial sun” EAST (Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak) achieved 100 million degree plasma sustained for 403 seconds in 2024, setting a world record. Though commercial power generation remains decades away, this demonstrates China’s nuclear fusion technological progress.
Strategic Considerations: China depends on imports for 80% of energy (oil, natural gas). Hydrogen and nuclear fusion can achieve energy independence, reducing geopolitical risks.
Industrial Strategy Background and Motivations
U.S.-China Tech Competition
U.S. Export Controls: Since 2022, the U.S. has implemented strict semiconductor export controls on China, prohibiting advanced chips (below 7nm), EUV lithography machines, and AI chips (such as Nvidia H100) from export to China. This severely impacts China’s AI, supercomputer, and cloud computing development.
Technological Independence Needs: Export controls force China to accelerate independent technology R&D. The future industries strategy represents concrete action for “technological self-reliance.” In quantum, BCI, and embodied intelligence fields where absolute technological monopolies haven’t formed, China has opportunities to overtake.
Economic Structural Transformation
Traditional Industry Bottlenecks: China’s traditional manufacturing (steel, chemicals, textiles) faces overcapacity, thin profits, and environmental pollution. Real estate and infrastructure investment-driven growth models are unsustainable, requiring new growth engines.
New Quality Productive Forces: CPC leader Xi Jinping proposed the “new quality productive forces” concept, emphasizing technological innovation and high-value-added industries. The future industries strategy is the core carrier of new quality productive forces, expected to drive high-paying employment, industrial upgrading, and export competitiveness enhancement.
Geopolitical Considerations
Supply Chain Security: COVID-19 pandemic and U.S.-China trade war exposed global supply chain fragility. China strives to establish autonomous and controllable supply chains in critical technology fields, avoiding being “choked.”
International Influence: Controlling future industry technology standards and patents can enhance China’s voice in global technology governance, attracting other countries to adopt Chinese technology standards (such as Belt and Road countries), building technology ecosystems.
Technical Challenges and Bottlenecks
Weak Basic Research
Papers vs. Patents: China’s scientific paper publication quantity ranks first globally, but highly-cited papers (representing original breakthroughs) percentage lags behind the U.S. Patent quantities are massive but “junk patent” proportions are high, with insufficient truly core technology patents.
Talent Outflow: China cultivates massive STEM talent, but top talent tends to study in the U.S. and Europe and remain there, causing high-level R&D talent shortages. Improvements needed in academic environment, compensation, and innovation freedom to attract talent return.
Industrialization Difficulties
Lab vs. Market: Many of China’s frontier technologies remain at laboratory stages with weak industrialization capabilities. Reasons include: venture capital preferring short-term returns (internet, e-commerce) over long-term hard tech, insufficient intellectual property protection, and industry-academia-research disconnection.
Unclear Business Models: Technologies like quantum communication and BCIs have limited application scenarios and unclear business models, making profitability difficult for enterprises. Government procurement and demonstration applications needed to support early market cultivation periods.
Restricted International Cooperation
Technology Blockades: The U.S. has placed multiple Chinese tech companies (Huawei, ZTE, Megvii, SenseTime) on entity lists, restricting access to U.S. technology and components. Europe and Japan have also tightened China technology exports, making advanced equipment and software difficult to obtain.
Talent Exchange Barriers: Chinese scholars and students face stricter U.S. visa reviews, reducing scientific exchanges. International academic journals and associations limit Chinese participation, affecting technology information access.
Comparison with Global Competition Landscape
U.S. Future Industries Strategy
CHIPS Act: The U.S. invests $52 billion revitalizing domestic semiconductor manufacturing, $28 billion for advanced packaging, quantum, and AI R&D. Prioritizing Intel, TSMC (Arizona fab), Samsung (Texas fab).
IRA (Inflation Reduction Act): $369 billion subsidizing clean energy (solar, wind, EVs, hydrogen, nuclear), driving energy transition.
AI Executive Order: Biden administration signed 2023 AI executive order requiring federal agency AI procurement to meet safety, fairness, and transparency standards, advancing AI governance.
Comparison: U.S. industrial policy focuses on semiconductors, clean energy, and AI, emphasizing supply chain security and China decoupling. China covers broader future industries (quantum, BCI, 6G), striving for comprehensive positioning.
EU Horizon Europe
R&D Budget: EU Horizon Europe program (2021-2027) invests 95.5 billion euros supporting quantum, AI, climate, and health R&D.
Quantum Flagship Initiative: 1 billion euros investing in quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum sensing, integrating European national research institutions and enterprises (such as Netherlands QuTech, France Pasqal).
Green New Deal: 1 trillion euros investing in renewable energy, carbon capture, and hydrogen, targeting 2050 carbon neutrality.
Comparison: EU industrial policy emphasizes multinational cooperation and regulatory frameworks (such as GDPR, AI Act). China features central government leadership with local government execution, offering higher decision efficiency but lower flexibility.
Japan Society 5.0
Super Smart Society: Japan proposes Society 5.0 vision, achieving human-cyberspace fusion through AI, IoT, and robots, addressing declining birthrates/aging population, disaster response, and energy issues.
Moonshot Program: 100 billion yen investing in nine moonshot programs, including achieving 100-year human lifespan by 2050, practical quantum computers, and autonomous driving society.
Comparison: Japan’s industrial policy prioritizes social problem orientation (aging, disasters). China emphasizes economic growth and technological independence.
Impact on Taiwan’s Industries
Semiconductor Supply Chain
Equipment Demand: China’s quantum, AI, and 6G chip R&D requires advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment, but faces U.S. export control impacts, unable to obtain Taiwan ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research equipment. Taiwan equipment vendors (such as Hermes, Gudeng) must carefully assess compliance risks when exporting to China.
Talent Competition: China’s semiconductor industry offers high salaries to poach Taiwan talent. TSMC and MediaTek must enhance compensation and career development attractiveness, avoiding talent loss.
Quantum Communication Market
Financial Industry Applications: China promotes quantum communication applications in finance. Taiwan financial institutions with China business dealings may need to adopt quantum-secure encryption. Domestic quantum technology companies (such as Academia Sinica quantum research teams) can seek collaboration opportunities.
National Security Considerations: Quantum communication involves national security. Taiwan needs independent quantum technology development, avoiding critical communication infrastructure dependence on China.
Robotics Industry
OEM Opportunities: Taiwan’s precision machinery and electronics manufacturing advantages can enter China’s embodied intelligence robot supply chain, providing servo motors (such as Delta Electronics), controllers (Advantech), and sensors.
Brand Competition: Taiwan robot companies (such as Hiwin, Solomon) must face China’s low-price competition, emphasizing technological differentiation and quality advantages.
Investment and Business Opportunities
Chinese Tech Stock Investment
Quantum Communication: QuantumCTek (688027.SH) listed on Shanghai STAR Market, market cap approximately 20 billion RMB, 2025 P/E ratio approximately 60x (high valuation reflecting growth expectations). Risks include limited market scale and government subsidy dependence.
Brain-Computer Interfaces: NeuroXess not yet listed but has received investment from Sequoia China and Matrix Partners. Monitor IPO opportunities but assess clinical trial progress and regulatory risks.
Robotics: UBTECH (9880.HK) listed in Hong Kong, market cap approximately 5 billion HKD. Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) positions in humanoid robots through CyberOne, market cap 700 billion HKD, with low robotics business proportion but long-term potential.
Supply Chain Opportunities
Rare Earth Materials: Quantum and 6G require substantial rare earth elements (such as neodymium, dysprosium for superconducting magnets, erbium, ytterbium for qubits). China controls 70% of global rare earth supply, benefiting related enterprises (China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth).
Optoelectronic Components: 6G terahertz communications require high-frequency optoelectronic components. Taiwan’s Win Semiconductors and Advanced Wireless Semiconductor may benefit but need technological breakthrough.
Cautious Risk Assessment
Policy Uncertainty: China’s industrial policies change rapidly, with subsidies potentially suddenly terminating, regulations potentially suddenly tightening (as with internet platforms, education industry precedents). Investment requires close policy dynamic monitoring.
Geopolitical Risks: U.S.-China tech war and Taiwan Strait tensions may impact Chinese tech stock valuations and supply chain stability. Diversified investment reduces single market risks.
Conclusion
China’s NDRC-announced future industries strategy marks China’s ambition to transform from “world’s factory” to “technological powerhouse.” Seven industries—quantum technology, BCIs, embodied intelligence, 6G communications, biomanufacturing, and hydrogen and nuclear fusion—target creating economic growth equivalent to an entirely new high-tech industrial sector over the next decade. QuantumCTek advancing quantum communication industrialization and NeuroXess achieving BCI clinical trial progress demonstrate China’s industrialization capabilities in certain fields. However, weak basic research, industrialization difficulties, and restricted international cooperation remain major challenges, with uncertainties in achieving overtaking. U.S.-China tech competition will drive both sides to accelerate future industry investment. Globally, “dual-track” tech ecosystems will emerge: U.S. dominance in semiconductors, AI, and biotech; China dominance in quantum communication, 6G, and new energy. Taiwan, positioned at the intersection of two major camps, must balance supply chain cooperation with national security considerations while accelerating independent technology R&D to avoid marginalization. Investors should monitor Chinese tech stocks (QuantumCTek, UBTECH) and supply chain opportunities (rare earths, optoelectronics) while cautiously assessing policy risks and geopolitical uncertainties. Overall, the future industries strategy reflects China’s multiple strategic considerations addressing U.S. technology blockades, economic transformation, and energy security. Execution effectiveness over the next decade will profoundly impact global technology landscapes and industrial division of labor.
