Mid-December 2025, multiple market research firms published reports warning that the global DRAM memory market faces a new round of price surge crisis. DRAM prices are expected to rise sharply in Q1 2026, directly impacting the cost structures of smartphone manufacturers like Apple and Samsung. Apple is anticipated to renegotiate memory supply contracts with major suppliers Samsung and SK Hynix in January 2026, while overall smartphone bill of materials (BOM) costs may increase 10-25%. TrendForce further predicts global smartphone shipments will decline 2.1% in 2026, with this memory crisis potentially persisting through 2028.
DRAM Price Increase Trends
2026 Q1 Price Surge Forecast
Market Research Data
According to multiple research institutions’ analyses:
- TrendForce Report: DRAM contract prices expected to rise 10-15% in 2026 Q1
- Spot Market: Price fluctuations more severe, some specifications may see 20-25% increases
- DDR5 Memory: As the next-generation mainstream specification, increases may exceed average
- Server DRAM: Driven by AI computing demand, facing greatest price pressure
Price Cycle Analysis
DRAM market exhibits clear cyclical patterns:
- 2023 Trough: Oversupply, prices dropped sharply
- 2024 Recovery: Demand rebounded, prices gradually stabilized
- 2025 Tightening: Supply shortage signs began emerging
- 2026 Peak: Prices expected to reach new highs
Supply-Demand Imbalance Root Causes
Supply-Side Constraints
Memory capacity expansion insufficient:
- Reduced Capital Expenditure: During 2023-2024 market downturn, major manufacturers cut capex
- Long New Fab Construction Cycles: From planning to production typically requires 2-3 years
- Technology Transition Challenges: Capacity adjustment difficulties during DDR4 to DDR5 transition
- Slow Yield Ramp: Advanced process (1α, 1β, 1γ nm-class) yield improvements require time
Demand-Side Explosion
Multiple factors driving demand surge:
- AI Server Demand: Services like ChatGPT and Claude driving HBM and DDR5 demand
- PC Market Recovery: Windows 11 upgrade cycle driving replacement wave
- Smartphone Memory Upgrades: Flagship models standardizing 12GB or even 16GB RAM
- Automotive Electronics: EVs and autonomous systems’ memory demand continuously growing
Apple’s Response Strategy
January 2026 Contract Renegotiation
Samsung Supply Relationship
Apple’s collaboration with Samsung’s memory business:
- Long-term Strategic Partner: Despite smartphone market competition, memory supply cooperation stable
- DRAM Supply: Samsung provides LPDDR5/LPDDR5X memory for iPhones
- NAND Flash: One of iPhone storage chip main suppliers
- Bargaining Power: Apple as major customer possesses strong negotiating leverage
SK Hynix Cooperation
Apple’s second-largest memory supplier:
- Risk Diversification: Avoiding over-reliance on single supplier
- Technical Advantages: SK Hynix leads in certain advanced process areas
- HBM Supply: Provides high-bandwidth memory for Apple Silicon chips
- Contract Terms: Typically signs quarterly or semi-annual supply contracts
Negotiation Strategy
Apple’s possible countermeasures:
- Long-term Contracts Locking Prices: Sign multi-year contracts for price stability
- Expand Supplier Base: Increase third suppliers like Micron’s proportion
- Advance Inventory Procurement: Build safety stock before price increases
- Technology Collaboration Binding: Provide technical support for preferential pricing
Cost Transfer and Product Strategy
iPhone Pricing Pressure
Memory cost increases’ impact on iPhone:
- BOM Cost Increase: Memory accounts for approximately 8-12% of iPhone BOM cost
- 10-25% Increase Impact: Per-device memory cost may increase $5-15
- Margin Pressure: Apple maintaining 40%+ gross margin faces challenges
- Pricing Strategy: May maintain prices while reducing other costs, or slightly increase pricing
Product Line Adjustment Possibilities
Apple’s possible countermeasures:
-
Memory Configuration Differentiation:
- Base models maintain lower memory capacity (6GB)
- Pro series increase starting capacity (8GB→12GB) but widen price gaps
-
Storage Capacity Strategy:
- Eliminate small capacity options (like 128GB)
- Guide consumers to select high-capacity versions spreading costs
-
Product Cycle Adjustment:
- Extend older model sales cycles
- Reduce new model launch frequency
Other Product Line Impacts
Not just iPhones affected:
- Mac Series: M-series chip unified memory architecture, cost pressure more obvious
- iPad: Pro series equipped with high-capacity memory, cost increase significant
- Vision Pro: As premium product, memory cost impact relatively minor
Samsung’s Dual Role
As Memory Supplier
Market Position
Samsung’s dominance in DRAM market:
- Market Share: Approximately 40-43% global DRAM market share
- Technology Leadership: Leading in DDR5 and LPDDR5X fields
- Capacity Advantage: Massive capacity in Korean Hwaseong and Pyeongtaek fabs
- Pricing Influence: As largest supplier, significant impact on market prices
Profitability Enhancement
Price increases’ positive impact on Samsung:
- Memory Division Revenue: Expected 2026 memory business revenue growth 20-30%
- Operating Margin: Rising from 2025’s 15-20% to 25-30%
- Offsetting Other Business Losses: Improving overall financial performance
- Stock Price Support: Memory business improvements supporting stock performance
As Smartphone Manufacturer
Cost Pressure
Samsung’s phone business challenges:
- Limited Self-Produced Memory Advantage: Internal transfer pricing still needs to reflect market costs
- Galaxy Series Cost Increase: Flagship models equipped with 12-16GB RAM, significant cost pressure
- Mid-Low Range Product Profit Squeeze: Memory costs’ higher proportion, profit margins shrinking
- Competitiveness Impact: Cost disadvantage widens competing with Chinese brands
Strategic Balance
Samsung needs balance between two roles:
- Memory Business: Desires price increases maximizing profits
- Phone Business: Desires controllable costs maintaining competitiveness
- Group Level: Overall benefit maximization, possibly sacrificing some phone business profits
Vertical Integration Advantages
Despite challenges, Samsung retains unique advantages:
- Supply Assurance: No worries about memory shortages
- Technology Synergy: Latest memory technology prioritized for own products
- Cost Control: Avoiding external procurement’s additional costs and risks
- Flexible Allocation: Can adjust internal supply configuration based on market conditions
Global Smartphone Market Impact
TrendForce 2.1% Shipment Decline Forecast
2026 Market Outlook
Market research firms’ pessimistic predictions:
- 2025 Shipments: Expected approximately 1.25 billion units (3.2% YoY growth)
- 2026 Forecast: Approximately 1.224 billion units (2.1% YoY decline)
- Decline Magnitude: Market contraction of approximately 26 million units
- Main Reason: Cost increases leading to higher prices, suppressing replacement demand
Regional Market Differences
Different markets’ affected levels:
- Emerging Markets: High price sensitivity, shipment decline possibly 3-5%
- Mature Markets: Consumers prioritize features over price, decline approximately 1-2%
- China Market: Intense local brand competition, may grow slightly counter-trend
- India Market: Mainly mid-low range market, more affected by cost increases
10-25% Smartphone BOM Cost Increase
Cost Structure Analysis
Memory’s proportion in smartphone BOM:
- Flagship Models: Memory (RAM+storage) accounts for approximately 20-25% of BOM cost
- Mid-Range Models: Approximately 15-20%
- Entry Models: Approximately 10-15%
Cost Increase Calculations
Examples for different price point phones:
-
$1000 Flagship:
- BOM cost approximately $400-450
- Memory cost approximately $80-100
- 10-25% increase = $8-25 increase
- Price impact: 0.8-2.5%
-
$400 Mid-Range:
- BOM cost approximately $180-220
- Memory cost approximately $30-40
- 10-25% increase = $3-10 increase
- Price impact: 0.75-2.5%
-
$150 Entry:
- BOM cost approximately $80-100
- Memory cost approximately $12-18
- 10-25% increase = $1.2-4.5 increase
- Price impact: 0.8-3%
Brand Response Strategies
Different brands’ possible measures:
- Apple, Samsung: Maintain prices, compress other costs or accept margin decline
- Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo: May slightly increase prices ($10-30) or reduce certain configurations
- Transsion, realme: Intense entry market competition, may reduce memory capacity configuration
Long-Term Outlook Through 2028
Supply Shortage Duration
Capacity Ramp Timeline
New capacity commissioning schedule:
- 2025 Q4-2026 Q1: Tightest supply period
- 2026 Q2-Q3: New capacity begins production but yields ramping
- 2026 Q4-2027: Supply-demand gradually balancing
- 2027-2028: Possibly shifting to oversupply again
Demand Growth Curve
Long-term demand drivers:
- AI Continued Growth: Expected to persist at least through 2028
- PC Refresh Cycle: Windows 12 (expected 2026-2027) may drive new demand wave
- 5G and 6G: Communication technology upgrades driving phone memory demand
- Automotive Electronics: 2025-2030 CAGR expected 15-20%
Technology Evolution Direction
DDR6 Era Arrival
Next-generation memory technology:
- DDR6 Specification: JEDEC standard expected late 2026
- Bandwidth Improvement: Over 50% bandwidth increase compared to DDR5
- Power Optimization: 20-30% reduction in per-transfer power consumption
- Mass Production Timeline: 2027-2028 production start
HBM Evolution
High-bandwidth memory’s future:
- HBM4 Standard: 2026 release, 2027-2028 mass production
- Bandwidth Breakthrough: Single-stack bandwidth exceeding 2TB/s
- Application Expansion: From AI accelerators to high-end consumer electronics
- Cost Reduction: Costs gradually decreasing with production scale expansion
Consumer Recommendations
Purchase Timing Advice
Late 2025 to 2026 Q1
Current purchase decision considerations:
- Year-End Promotions: Late 2025 may be last opportunity before price increases
- Inventory Clearance: Brands may clear old inventory, prices advantageous
- New Device Delay: If not necessary, can wait until prices stabilize
Full Year 2026
Strategies during price peak period:
- Necessity Assessment: Carefully evaluate whether device replacement truly needed
- Extend Old Device Use: Extend current device lifespan through software optimization
- Secondary Market: Consider purchasing certified refurbished or secondhand flagship phones
- Installment Promotions: Utilize brand installment payment to reduce single-time expenditure
Post-2027
Opportunities after market stabilizes:
- Supply-Demand Balance: Prices may decline, more suitable purchase timing
- Technology Maturity: DDR6 and next-generation products may launch
- Product Selection: More diverse product lines and configuration choices
Conclusion
The 2026 DRAM memory price surge storm is incoming, with Q1 expected to see dramatic 10-25% increases, directly impacting the entire consumer electronics supply chain. Apple will renegotiate memory supply contracts with Samsung and SK Hynix in January 2026, facing significant cost pressure. Smartphone BOM cost increases will lead to terminal price adjustments or profit margin shrinkage, with TrendForce predicting global smartphone shipments will decline 2.1% as a result.
Key Takeaways
- Supply-Demand Imbalance: AI demand explosion and insufficient capacity expansion causing structural shortage
- Cyclical Phenomenon: Aligns with DRAM market historical cycle patterns, but AI factor makes this round more severe
- Brand Response: Major players like Apple and Samsung relatively advantaged by scale and integration, small brands face survival challenges
- Consumer Impact: Short-term purchase cost increases, but long-term (2027-2028) supply-demand will rebalance
This memory price surge highlights several important trends:
- AI Changes Demand Structure: No longer just consumer electronics cyclical fluctuations, AI computing brings structural demand
- Supply Chain Resilience Importance: Diversified suppliers and long-term contracts locking costs become key strategies
- Accelerated Technology Evolution: DDR6, HBM4 and other new technology development accelerating to meet continuously growing demand
- Geopolitical Role: Memory industry becoming national strategic asset, government intervention intensifying
For consumers, late 2025 may be the last purchase opportunity before price increases. For the industry, balancing costs, maintaining competitiveness and preparing for the next cycle during this price surge will be 2026’s greatest challenge. As new capacity successively comes online in 2027-2028, the market is expected to find new balance, but AI’s structural demand changes mean the future memory market will be fundamentally different from the past.
Sources:
